Foreword
The Hon Tanya Plibersek MP
Minister for Housing
Parliament House
CANBERRA ACT 2600
Dear Minister
On behalf of the National Housing Supply Council, I am pleased to present our inaugural report, State of Supply 2008. It provides projections of housing demand and supply over the next 20 years and reflects on the adequacy of construction rates and land supply to meet future needs.
This first State of Supply Report draws on available data and the combined knowledge and expertise of the National Housing Supply Council’s members and support staff; research from industry organisations and academics, and discussion with a range of people with specific knowledge and experience. The Report is an important step towards establishing robust national information to inform government and industry on emerging trends and likely future scenarios in the demand for and supply of housing in Australia.
In collating and analysing this information, the Report identifies several important housing issues, including the impact on supply and demand of the present global financial crisis, present and projected demand exceeding supply, high housing costs affecting lower income home buyers and tenants, and aspects of urban development, infrastructure, planning and development assessment processes that constrain housing supply and affordability. These issues are of keen policy interest at national, State and local government levels. A further important issue is the quality and consistency of data relating to land and housing supply around Australia.
While aggregated national data is required for assessing high level trends at a wholeof- market level, it is also important to examine what’s happening in sub-markets – in different market segments and in smaller geographical units. Parity between supply and demand at national level could mask a mismatch at sub-market level. The Report notes that demand-side pressures on the private rental market, particularly in relation to dwellings affordable to lower income households, have been exacerbated by the decline over the last decade in social housing’s share of total dwelling stock. The Council is pleased that the Government’s latest Nation Building Plan will make a substantial response to addressing that shortfall.
This first report skims the surface of the housing supply challenges that face Australians in the years to come. There is still a great deal of work for the Council to do to improve data and its analysis, develop better methods of projecting likely trends, and disaggregate national data to provide more specific ‘sub-market’ assessments of housing supply, such as housing for aged Australians.
This first State of Supply Report is the outcome of the hard work, good thinking and willing engagement of many people, including fellow Council members, staff of the Australian Government Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, other Australian Government, State and Territory agencies, industry organisations and interested individuals. My sincere thanks go to them all.
I would also like to thank you personally for your active support for, and engagement in, the work of the Council. We look forward to continuing this relationship and making further progress in the year ahead.
Yours sincerely
Dr Owen Donald
Chair, National Housing Supply Council