National Housing Supply Council State of Supply Report

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Contents

• Table of contents
• Foreword
• Executive Summary
• Chapter 1 - Introduction
• Chapter 2 - Demand
• Chapter 3 - Supply
• Chapter 4 - Projections of the demand-supply gap
• Chapter 5 - Affordability
• Chapter 6 - Conclusions
• Appendices
• Glossary and abbreviations
• List of Figures and Tables

Chapter 2 - Demand

• Key points
• Overview
• Current demand
• Projections of demand
• Overview of results
• Factors influencing housing demand
  • Underlying demand
  • Effective demand
  • Demand from owner-occupiers
  • Demand from investors
• Government assistance measures
• Taxation and investment
• Government assistance for low income renters

Key points

• In June 2008, there were approximately 8.3 million households in Australia.
• Annual growth in the number of households averaged 105,000 in the period 2001 to 2006.
• The average number of persons per household declined from 2.7 in 1996 to 2.6 in 2006.
• There were 8,800 households (16,400 people) sleeping rough and a further 50,500 households living in caravans, cabins or houseboats in 2006.
• Over the next two years (2009 to 2010) in the order of 153,000 households a year are likely to be added to underlying housing demand.
• By 2018, the number of households is projected to grow to 9.9 million – an increase of 1.6 million in the underlying demand for dwellings over the 10-year period from 2008.
• By 2028, the number of households is projected to be 11.4 million – an increase of 3.1 million in the underlying demand for dwellings over the 20-year period from 2008.

Overview

Two aspects of demand for housing may be identified: underlying demand and effective demand. While it is useful to distinguish between them, it should be noted these aspects are related and overlap considerably.

• Underlying demand is the ‘need’ for housing based on the number of households (family units, other groups and individuals) in the population. The level of underlying demand is accordingly driven predominantly by migration and demographic factors. An increase in the number of households may imply the need for an equivalent increase in the number of dwelling completions, although the gross increase needed in housing completions will be larger due to the need to also replace dwellings that have been demolished or are no longer suitable for habitation. It should also be noted that household formation may be affected by the supply of housing in that, for instance, constrained housing supply reduces the rate at which young adults partner and leave the parental home.
• Effective demand describes the number, size, type and location of dwellings that owner-occupiers and investors are willing and able to buy in the housing market. It is affected by the full range of market forces – including number of households, incomes, prices, the economic situation, availability of finance and the current supply of dwellings.

This chapter focuses primarily on projections of underlying demand. This is partly because of its importance in assessing the adequacy of supply, but also because of the great difficulty, particularly in the current environment of major change in international economic and financial conditions, of predicting the impacts of economic factors—such as the future availability and cost of finance and consumer confidence—on demand for housing. However, a broader discussion of social and economic factors impacting on both underlying and effective demand is also included in the chapter.

Projections of underlying demand are affected by assumptions about:

• increases in household numbers through natural changes in the population, migration (both overseas and interstate) and household formation
• changes in household preferences (for dwelling types and holiday homes, for instance), which are influenced by a range of social and economic factors.

These assumptions need to be borne in mind when interpreting the results of the projections presented in this report.

Current demand

The starting point for projections of future underlying demand is the current demand for dwellings in Australia. In 2008, there were an estimated 8.3 million occupied private dwellings in Australia. The majority of these were occupied by families (67 per cent). Couples with children occupied 31 per cent of all stock. Three-quarters of the occupied stock were separate houses, 14 per cent were flats, units or apartments, and 9 per cent were semi-detached, row or terrace houses, or town houses (see Table 2.1).

Description of Table 2.1

Table 2.1: Occupied dwellings: dwelling structure by household composition (‘000 households), 2008

Dwelling structure	Family households				Sub total: family house- holds	Other households			Total
	Couple family		Single parent family	Other family		Single person	Group	Other(a)
	with no children	with children
	(‘000 households)
Separate house	1,655.8	2,342.4	699.8	64.6	4,762.8	1,084.1	169.4	234.3	6,250.9
Semi- detached, row or terrace house, town- house etc.	176.9	125.6	88.3	11.5	402.4	275.6	46.5	48.1	772.5
Flat, unit or apartment	221.3	99.4	85.4	21.6	427.8	508.3	89.6	157.9	1,183.4
Other dwelling	20.1	10.0	5.2	0.7	36.0	44.5	3.1	56.5	140.0
Total	2,074.2	2,577.4	878.7	98.6	5,629.0	1,912.5	308.7	496.8	8,346.7

These 8.3 million households represent the main component of the Council’s estimate of underlying demand for housing in 2008.

Projections of demand

Household projections

The Council commissioned Professor Peter McDonald and Dr Jeromey Temple to develop projections of housing demand in capital cities and ‘rest of state’ for States and Territories of Australia for 2008–2028, using their net transition probability approach. The main reason for commissioning this work was that the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ detailed household projections would not be ready in the required time frame for publication of the Council’s first report.

The full report of the McDonald–Temple study will be provided on the Council’s webpage.⁹ This chapter focuses on some of its key results, concentrating on estimates of growth in the total number of households.

Methodology

The household projections begin with 2006 Census data on the population, categorised by sex, single year of age and individual household classification type (HCT) for each locality, adjusted to match the ABS estimated resident population for the particular locality and year. Future projections take into account the sex, age and locality characteristics of individuals and use location-specific estimates of future fertility (based on 2006 data) and mortality (based on 2001–06 data, adjusted by the rate of change in expectation of life derived from the period 1991 to 2006) and a range of assumptions about net annual migration (overseas and interstate). Net transition probabilities that each individual changes their HCT from one year to the next were derived from intercensal data and applied to population projections by sex, age and location. These probabilities are location specific and take account of the effect of migration upon HCT. Household projections were derived by applying the projected HCT categories to population projections on the assumption that the HCT transition probabilities for 2001–2006 remain unchanged throughout the projection period.

Changes in household transition probabilities are likely to occur relatively slowly and will be overshadowed by changes in migration patterns. The McDonald–Temple study provided projections for three different assumptions about overseas migration and one about interstate migration. This chapter focuses on results from the three scenarios based on low, medium and high forecasts of household growth as follows:

• The low household growth scenario assumes that age and sex-specific net migration rates (overseas and interstate) for each region as observed in the period 2001–06 are maintained, with total net overseas migration increasing from around 120,000 a year in 2008 to around 160,000 a year in 2028
• The medium household growth scenario sets net overseas migration at a constant rate of 180,000 a year from 2008 onwards, with shares to states and territories of overseas migration and rates of interstate migration equated to those used by the most recent ABS medium projection¹⁰
• The high household growth scenario sets net overseas migration at a constant rate of 230,000 a year from 2008 onwards, with shares to states and territories as per the medium growth scenario.

Overview of results

A recent ministerial announcement¹¹ with regard to international migration suggests that the medium growth scenario is the most likely in the short term. However, in recognition of the uncertainty associated with the future impact of prevailing economic conditions in Australia and overseas on migration and household growth, the Council considers it prudent to refer also to the low and high household growth scenarios.

The Council is also aware that housing demand may also be affected by changes in nonpermanent migration (such as by overseas students and people on temporary work visas staying between three and twelve months) that are not reflected in the above-mentioned estimates. Student and temporary work visa entrants (including business long stay and working holiday makers) increased from 185,000 in 2003 to 314,000 in 2008. This should be noted when interpreting the estimates of underlying demand, which do not include temporary entrants.¹²

Table 2.2 shows the numbers of additional dwellings that would be required to meet projected demand for different household types over the 20-year period from 2008 to 2028 under the medium household growth scenario. Under this scenario, the net number of new dwellings required for Australia as a whole would be 3,060,000 over 20 years, or 153,000 dwellings per year. This corresponds to an increase in the number of households from 8,347,000 in 2008 to 11,407,000 in 2028.

Description of Table 2.2

Table 2.2: Projections of national underlying demand by household type (‘000 dwellings), 2008–28, medium household growth scenario

Household type	Year, as at 30 June
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2018	2028
Two-parent families	2,642	2,666	2,691	2,716	2,742	2,767	2,902	3,172
Single-parent families	954	967	980	991	1,002	1,012	1,058	1,181
Couples without children	2,263	2,314	2,365	2,417	2,468	2,518	2,752	3,095
Single-person households	2,160	2,218	2,277	2,337	2,399	2,463	2,807	3,537
Group households	328	334	340	345	351	356	381	423
Total households	8,347	8,499	8,652	8,807	8,962	9,118	9,900	11,407

Source: NHSC estimates based on McDonald–Temple medium household growth scenario.

Table 2.3 compares demand for additional dwellings on a state and territory basis under the low, medium and high household growth scenarios. It should be noted that these projections are sensitive to assumptions about rates of net overseas and interstate migration. In particular, the assumptions relating to interstate migration in the low growth scenario are different from those incorporated in the medium and high growth projections. This produces the curious outcome that, for instance, household growth and hence dwelling requirements are higher in Melbourne, Brisbane, Balance of Queensland and Balance of Tasmania under the low growth scenario compared with the medium growth scenario. This is the outcome of the differing interstate migration and migrant settlement assumptions noted above. It is also important to recognise that the assumptions are unlikely to apply to all areas over the full projection period.

Description of Table 2.3

Table 2.3: Additional households by region for low, medium and high household growth scenarios, 2008–28 as at 30 June

Region	Lowgrowth scenario	Medium growth scenario	High growth scenario
Sydney	295,000	472,000	600,000
Balance of NSW	204,000	307,000	313,000
NSW Total	500,000	779,000	913,000
Melbourne	593,000	581,000	687,000
Balance of Vic.	129,000	136,000	143,000
Vic. Total	722,000	717,000	830,000
Brisbane	425,000	346,000	394,000
Balance of Qld	665,000	515,000	549,000
Qld Total	1,090,000	861,000	943,000
Adelaide	88,000	115,000	142,000
Balance of SA	46,000	47,000	49,000
SA Total	134,000	162,000	191,000
Perth	281,000	319,000	374,000
Balance of WA	77,000	101,000	107,000
WA Total	357,000	419,000	481,000
Hobart	19,000	22,000	24,000
Balance of Tas.	26,000	21,000	23,000
Tas. Total	45,000	43,000	46,000
NT Total	22,000	32,000	34,000
ACT Total	31,000	47,000	50,000
AUSTRALIA	2,901,000	3,060,000	3,489,000
South-east Qld (a)	825,000	631,000	730,000

Table 2.4 shows the cumulative increase starting from 30 June 2008 over selected years for each of the three projection scenarios, nationally.

Description of Table 2.4

Table 2.4: Cumulative additional households from 2008 under low, medium and high household growth scenarios, selected years

	Low growth scenario	Medium growth scenario	High growth scenario
2010	274,000	305,000	344,000
2013	698,000	771,000	871,000
2018	1,427,000	1,553,000	1,758,000
2023	2,175,000	2,332,000	2,647,000
2028	2,901,000	3,060,000	3,489,000

Source: NHSC estimates based on McDonald–Temple low, medium and high household growth scenarios.

The low growth scenario projections assume that age and sex-specific migration rates remain the same as a proportion of the population as they were on average over the period 2001–06. The level of net overseas migration for this period was lower than the levels assumed in the other scenarios; however, rates of migration to south-east Queensland were higher in that period than those assumed in the other scenarios. As a result, this scenario implies a smaller number of additional dwellings for Australia as a whole when compared with other scenarios, but a higher number in south-east Queensland. The main offset is a much smaller number of dwellings required in New South Wales.

Under the low growth scenario, the greatest numbers of additional dwellings would be required in south-east Queensland (41,000 per year) and in Melbourne (30,000 per year). An additional 15,000 dwellings per year would be required in Sydney and 14,000 per year in Perth.

Under the medium growth scenario, a total of 3,060,000 additional dwellings would be required for Australia over 20 years, or 153,000 dwellings per year. The areas with the greatest increases would be south-east Queensland, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. Compared with the low growth scenario, the medium growth scenario has higher numbers of additional dwellings for all areas except for Melbourne, Balance of Tasmania, Brisbane, south-east Queensland and Balance of Queensland. As discussed above, this relates to the differences between migration patterns observed over the 2001–06 intercensal period used for the low growth scenario and the assumptions relating to international and interstate migration rates and patterns used for the medium and high growth scenarios.

Under the high scenario, a total of 3,489,000 additional dwellings would be required for Australia over 20 years, or 174,000 dwellings per year. Again, the areas with the greatest increases would be south-east Queensland, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth. Compared with the low scenario, the high growth scenario has higher numbers of dwellings required in all locations except for non-metropolitan Tasmania, Brisbane, south-east Queensland, Balance of Queensland and Queensland in general. Again, this relates to differing assumptions with regard to international and interstate migration rates and patterns.

On the assumptions made by McDonald and Temple, the varying levels of migration in the scenarios detailed above change the overall growth of each household type but do not change the distribution of household types within each region. Changing assumptions relating to household transition probabilities, however, does alter the distribution of household types within and between regions. For further information, refer to the full McDonald – Temple report on the Council’s webpage.

The final stage in McDonald and Temple’s methodology was to attribute dwelling type and tenure to each projected household, assuming that dwelling type and tenure propensities were the same as those observed at the 2006 Census. The Council has not reported these results here because:

• The type of dwellings that different household types will occupy in the future is highly constrained by existing supply and by differential rates of growth in different forms of housing stock
• Housing type and tenure status are likely to be moderated by the full range of factors that influence effective demand.

Factors influencing housing demand

The overview to this chapter drew a distinction between underlying demand and effective demand, with the latter covering a range of factors, often cyclical in nature, that moderate demand expressed in the marketplace, especially in the shorter term. The following paragraphs discuss the drivers of change in both aspects of demand and identify potential interaction effects and implications for interpretation of the demand projections provided above.

Underlying demand

A range of analyses and research indicates that several of the influences on underlying housing demand have changed over time and are likely to continue to change. Examples include:

• changing overseas and interstate migration levels, with settlement patterns often linked to employment opportunities and preferred retirement locations
• regional differences in housing opportunities, along with a mismatch between housing location and labour markets
• delays in household formation linked to, among other things, changes in the duration of education and higher house prices
• people living longer, with a rise in the number of very old people (older than 85 years).

Some of these changes have been consistent and gradual and are likely to have been taken into account reasonably reliably in the projection methodology. A steady decline in household size over a long period, for example, has meant that growth in the number of households has exceeded population growth. The ABS most recent estimates are for a decline from 2.6 people per dwelling in 2001 to about 2.3 people per dwelling in 2026.¹³ The link between population growth and household formation is influenced by population ageing, family formation, the birth rate, more people remaining single and young adults remaining in their parents’ home for longer.

Other changes, however, are more difficult to take into account. These difficulties can be illustrated by the variation in population growth over the past decade. In the 10 years to 30 June 2007, Australia’s population increased by 1.3 per cent a year on average, with just over half of this growth resulting from natural increase and just under half from net overseas migration. In the last two years, Australia’s population has grown by 1.5 per cent a year, with migration contributing more to population growth than did natural increase in the year ended 30 June 2007 (see Figure 2.1 and Box 2.2). At a subregional level, variations in interstate migration have equally significant impacts.

Figure 2.1: Net overseas migration and population growth, 1996–2007

Description of Figure 2.1

Source: Adapted from Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Demographic Trends, March Quarter 2008, cat. no. 3101, ABS, Canberra, 2008.

Effective demand

Effective demand is the quantity of housing that owner-occupiers and investors are able and willing to buy.

Demand from owner-occupiers

Effective demand is strongly influenced by factors affecting households’ capacity to pay for housing. These include the cost and availability of housing finance and growth in incomes and employment. Changes in mortgage interest rates, in particular, are an important driver of fluctuations in demand for new housing. Changes in confidence about the future, including expectations of future capital gains, also affect buyers’ willingness to pay for housing.

In combination with the demographic drivers of underlying demand, increased effective demand has been the principal driver of the long-term rise in house prices relative to incomes since the early 1990s. This increased demand, arising from increases in households’ capacity to pay for housing, can be attributed to five key factors:

• a long period of growth in incomes and employment and declining unemployment
• a sizeable fall in interest rates, relative to the previous two decades, as low inflation was established
• increased access to credit as a result of financial deregulation and innovation
• the desire by existing households to move up to higher quality and better located housing as their capacity to pay improves
• various fiscal measures implemented by government to assist first home buyers and to contribute to increases in households’ capacity to pay for housing.

While there are common influences affecting all or most housing markets at any time, housing markets are intrinsically local, with local influences that can lead to very different outcomes from those prevailing elsewhere. The ‘housing hotspots’ in Appendix 4 illustrate some areas where employment or other location-specific influences on demand generate imbalances relating to housing availability, affordability and construction capacity.

Demand from investors

Effective demand for rental accommodation is channelled indirectly through investors’ demand. While higher rental demand should ultimately lead to higher investor demand, other influences are also important, particularly in the short term. These include:

• changes in rental yields
• changes in interest rates that will impact on investors’ borrowing costs
• changes in expectations of future capital gains
• changes in the taxation treatment of investment properties and associated charges and levies, such as halving of the rate of tax applicable to capital gains on all investments (including investment properties) held for more than 12 months in 1999, and the introduction of the ‘vendor’ tax in New South Wales in 2003.

Over the past 20 years, dwelling rents have generally grown more slowly than either incomes or dwelling prices. As a result, rental yields (rental income as a proportion of the dwelling value) have fallen significantly. This trend is consistent with falling yields from a range of assets including bonds and stocks during this period. The average yield across rental houses and units has been around or below 4 per cent since 2001, compared with around 7 per cent in the late 1980s and 6 per cent in the early 1990s (see Figure 2.2). In recent years, however, rents have tended to increase faster than both house prices and incomes.

Figure 2.2: Average rental yields, 1988–2008

Description of Figure 2.2

Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia unpublished, 2008.

Over the past six years, rental vacancy rates have fallen, suggesting that, despite significant capital gains over the period, total returns on rental housing investment have not been sufficient to ensure that supply keeps pace with demand. Over the past two years, however, very low vacancy rates have caused rent growth to accelerate. The dwelling rent component of the Consumer Price Index—which measures average growth across all rental housing—rose by 8 per cent over the year to June 2008¹⁴. Rents on new leases have been growing even faster, which suggests that overall rent growth will continue to increase¹⁵.

However, the extent to which investors will be encouraged into the market by rent growth and interest rate reductions is tempered by tighter constraints on the availability of mortgage finance, credit rationing affecting the commencement of multi-unit developments, and the prospect of lower capital growth in the current economic conditions.

Government assistance measures

Policies at all three levels of government also have an impact on effective demand. There are a number of direct measures to assist people to achieve home ownership, as well as aspects of the taxation regime, that affect expenditure on housing and therefore on demand, house prices and affordability.

The First Home Owners Grant (FHOG) Scheme was introduced in 2000 as a $7,000 grant payment to first home buyers. In April 2001, it was doubled to $14,000 before stepping down in two stages to a $7,000 payment for first home purchases from July 2002 (note that the FHOG Scheme is generally ‘topped up’ by varying levels of state and territory assistance in the form of extra cash grants, stamp duty concessions and the like).

The impact of the FHOG Scheme on demand at the time can be seen in data on the proportion of home loans made to first home buyers, which was around 22 per cent of all home loans between 1992 and 2000 (see Figure 2.3). This proportion rose to 25 per cent on the introduction of the scheme in July 2000, falling back to 20 per cent in early 2001 before being re-energised by the doubling of the grant in April 2001. After decreases to the grant level in January 2002 and July 2002, the proportion of first home buyers dipped to less than 15 per cent and then stabilised at around 17 per cent—substantially below the 1992 to 2000 average.

Figure 2.3: Monthly loans to all home buyers by number and proportion of loans to first home buyers, July 1991–November 2008

Description of Figure 2.3

The pattern in Figure 2.3 suggests that the main effect of the FHOG Scheme was to bring forward demand rather than increase it overall.

It is difficult to predict the impact of the measures introduced by the Government (see Box 2.5) in the present uncertain and volatile economic situation. Other things being equal, there should be additional demand for dwellings—especially new dwellings—arising from improved capacity to raise a deposit. But other circumstances are not equal, including the cost and availability of debt finance, the likelihood of increased unemployment and restrained economic growth. The Housing Industry Association has reported that new home sales increased in October 2008 but the apartment market has remained subdued.¹⁶

Taxation and investment

Aspects of the taxation system that influence housing demand have been examined by both the Productivity Commission and the Senate Select Committee on Housing Affordability in Australia.¹⁷ Taxation affects effective demand from both investors and owner-occupiers.

The Productivity Commission Inquiry on First Home Ownership found that negative gearing rules, capital works deductions for buildings, the 1999 change to capital gains tax (CGT) for assets held by individuals and high marginal income rates combined to magnify the attractiveness of investing in residential property during the upswing in prices from the late 1990s, thereby adding to price pressures.¹⁸ In particular, there was strong demand for inner-city apartments (2000–03) as well as apartments and houses in more established areas.¹⁹ It also noted that:

'the 1999 change in the basis for levying CGT, being more or less coincident with the decline in returns from equities, has added to the recent housing price boom by encouraging investors to reduce current income in favour of longer term capital gains.'²⁰

The Productivity Commission further noted that home owners are advantaged by the exemption of the principal residence from capital gains tax and the non-taxation of imputed rental income, which they saw as ‘potentially leading to over-investment in housing’. However, it concluded that:

'it is unclear that there would be large gains to the community from changes to promote tax ‘neutrality’ in relation to owner-occupied housing, given the administrative complexities and compliance costs, and the possible loss of social benefits from home ownership that would follow.'²¹

Further, if the ‘tax breaks’ currently enjoyed by owner-occupiers were to be removed, consistency with the treatment of other forms of taxable income would require that interest on owner-occupier mortgages be tax-deductible.

The Council recognises the complexity of the tax-transfer system and its effects on the housing market. It is expected that the relationship between taxation and the operation of the housing market will be the subject of consultation and research as part of the Henry Review (Box 2.6). Further reference to this review is included in Chapter 3.

Government assistance for low income renters

Government–owned and subsidised housing is administered by the states and territories but supported with substantial Australian Government funding through the National Affordable Housing Agreement (NAHA).

The new NAHA, which commenced on 1 January 2009, includes the new Housing Specific Purpose Payment that replaces the Commonwealth State Housing Agreement and the Supported Accommodation Assistance Program (SAAP). More detail on the NAHA is in Chapter 5, Box 5.3.

Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) is a non-taxable income supplement paid to individuals and families who rent in the private rental market and who receive a Commonwealth pension or benefit, or more than the base rate of Family Tax Benefit Part A (FTB A). Commonwealth Rent Assistance is also available to community housing tenants. Commonwealth Rent Assistance is available to eligible customers who pay private rent above minimum thresholds. It is paid at a rate of 75 cents for every dollar above the threshold until a maximum rate is reached. The maximum rates and thresholds vary according to a customer’s family situation and the number of children they have.

Further information about the impact of Commonwealth Rent Assistance is included in Chapter 5.

Chapter 3 provides information on the Commonwealth Housing Affordability Fund (HAF) and the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS).

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9. <http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/internet/facsinternet.nsf/housing/nhsc.htm>

10. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Population projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101, cat. no. 3222.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008.

11. Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Ministerial Statement by Senator Chris Evans, Minister for Immigration and Citizenship: Changes to the 2008–09 Skilled Migration Program, 17 December 2008, accessed 16 January 2009, <http://www.minister.immi.gov.au/media/media-releases/2008/changes-to-2008-09-skilled-migration-program.pdf>.

12. Data on temporary entrants are given in Appendix 2, Table A2.1 (temporary entrants by major visa group present in Australia as at 30 June for the years 1999 to 2008).

13. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Household and family projections, Australia: projected persons by living arrangements 2001 to 2026, cat. no. 3236.0.55.004, ABS, Canberra, June 2004.

14. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Australia, ‘Table 7. CPI: Group, Sub-group and Expenditure Class, Weighted Average of Eight Capital Cities’, cat. no. 6401.0, ABS, Canberra, 2008.

15. Real Estate Institute of Australia, Real Estate Market Facts, June Quarter 2008, ‘Table 5: Summary of Median Weekly Rents, June Quarter 2008’, REIA, Canberra, 2008.

16. Housing Industry Association, Rate cut and FHOG spark sales, media release, Canberra, 27 November 2008.

17. Productivity Commission, First home ownership: inquiry report, Productivity Commission, Melbourne, 2004; Senate Select Committee on Housing Affordability in Australia, A good house is hard to find: Housing affordability in Australia, Senate Select Committee on Housing Affordability in Australia, Canberra, June 2008.

18. Productivity Commission, First home ownership: inquiry report, p. xxiv.

19. Reserve Bank of Australia, Submission to the Productivity Commission Inquiry on First Home Ownership, RBA Occasional Paper no. 16, RBA, Canberra, November 2003, p. 39.

20. Productivity Commission, First home ownership: inquiry report, p. 118.

21. Productivity Commission, First home ownership: inquiry report, p. xxiv.

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